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(Bloomberg) -- Oil rose, following back-to-back weekly declines, as broader markets rallied.With headline prices largely range-bound over the past couple of weeks, the more significant market moves have been in the structure of the oil futures curve. Brent’s second-month contract is the most expensive versus a month later in more than a year. The formation -- known as backwardation -- has been growing in recent months and is a sign of market tightness with Saudi Arabia’s unilateral production cuts set to start this month.Keeping a lid on price gains, a Chinese purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing missed estimates in January, showing that efforts to rein in Covid-19 are affecting Asia’s largest economy. That compounded concerns that virus-related restrictions will stymie demand in the coming weeks. But with money flowing into commodities as vaccines are rolled out, and with OPEC+ still restraining output, there are hopes that inventories will fall sharply this month.“Risk-on is one factor” driving oil prices higher, said UBS Group AG commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “The second is the prospect of inventory declines over the coming weeks as a result of the Saudi production cut.”Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the rebalancing of the oil market continues to beat its above-consensus expectations, with the supply deficit seen averaging 900,000 barrels a day in the first half, compared with an earlier estimate of 500,000.There were softer signs in the demand outlook from India, though. January diesel sales fell 5% from a month earlier, and were down 2.3% from the same period last year, according to preliminary data from officials with direct knowledge of the matter.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.?2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Oil futures gain ground Monday, buoyed in part by a survey indicating crude output by the Organizaton of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose less than expected in January.
(Bloomberg) -- OPEC and its partners estimate they implemented 99% of their agreed oil-supply curbs in December, according to a delegate who asked not to be named.The 23-nation alliance known as OPEC+ aimed to withhold 7.2 million barrels a day of crude from the market in January -- about 7% of global supplies. They agreed to increase production by 500,000 barrels from December as part of a plan to ease the cuts.The compliance data is preliminary and will be reviewed on Tuesday by the group’s Joint Technical Committee.The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to unprecedented supply restrictions last April after the coronavirus pandemic grounded planes, shut down economies and caused oil prices to crash. Benchmark Brent crude has almost tripled since its trough that month to $56 a barrel, though it’s still below what most producing nations need to balance their budgets.No Policy ChangeImplementation in December was at 103% among OPEC members, and 93% for their non-OPEC partners, a group that includes Russia and Kazakhstan.The JTC will present its assessment to the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which meets on Wednesday to discuss the alliance’s strategy. The JMMC is unlikely to recommend any policy changes, according to delegates who asked not to be identified.Following the modest increase in January production, OPEC+ has decided to keep output unchanged in February and March. However, Saudi Arabia, the group’s most influential member, pledged a unilateral cut of 1 million barrels each day over that period.Iraq, the biggest producer in OPEC+ after Saudi Arabia and Russia, said it would reduce its daily output to 3.6 million barrels in January and February to make up for breaching its quota last year. That would be a reduction of roughly 250,000 barrels a day from December.OPEC+ will hold a full ministerial meeting in early March to decide its next steps.(Corrects month reference in headline and 1st and 5th paragraphs.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.?2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Crude oil prices remained firm at the first trading session of the week in London, trading far above its key support levels of $50 a barrel amid Saudi’s strong commitments in curbing its oil production, thereby triggering oil bulls riding the wagon up amid rising cases of COVID-19 around the globe.
Environmentalists and labor unions that threw their support behind U.S. President Joseph Biden now find themselves on the opposite sides of a battle over the construction of big pipeline projects between Canada and the United States. The United States is the world's largest producer of oil and gas. Biden's administration aims to transition the U.S. economy towards net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and his initial moves towards that goal included cancelling a permit for the Keystone XL crude oil pipeline (KXL) and reducing oil-and-gas leasing.
Oil prices rose on Monday buoyed by falling inventories and hopes of a swifter global economic recovery, although halting vaccine rollouts and renewed travel restrictions capped gains. Brent crude was up 79 cents, or 1.4%, at $55.83 a barrel by 1215 GMT. He said he expected Brent to hit $60 barrel by mid-year.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday after a weak start, holding on to the past three months of gains, although patchy coronavirus vaccine rollouts, new infections and the discovery of new variants are keeping a lid on prices. Brent crude futures were up 10 cents at $55.14 a barrel by 0233 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1 cents to $52.21. Oil prices have been boosted by vaccination programmes getting underway in hard-hit countries and output cuts by major producers like Saudi Arabia.
Crude oil prices could drift around current levels this week on concerns over a slow recovery caused by unexpected issues with the vaccine rollouts.
Already one trading month of 2021 has been burned, therein the price of Gold having mostly been churned. In settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1850, ’twas not only the sixth consecutive trading day during which such price traded, but so it has done in 13 of the past 15 trading days.
Activity in China’s oil futures market has risen to record levels as the country seeks to develop the role of its currency in a trade dominated by the US dollar. Open interest in oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), a measure of the total number of contracts outstanding, leapt to a daily average of 118,249 in 2020 — four times higher than in 2019.
Biden’s move to ban the Keystone XL pipeline has dealt a major blow to Canada’s already-struggling oil sands industry
(Bloomberg) -- American oil executives began a pushback against some of President Joe Biden’s climate policies by making the case that fossil fuels from U.S. shale have a lower carbon footprint than imports.Since taking office this month, the Biden administration has made swift moves to pause sales of oil and gas leases on federal land, cancel the Keystone XL pipeline and expand the government’s fleet of clean-energy vehicles. The U.S. oil industry, already under pressure from low prices and investor pessimism, is particularly concerned about limiting access to resources on federal acreage in New Mexico, Wyoming, Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.“We don’t think it’s good policy to be overly restrictive on federal land,” Chevron’s Chief Financial Officer Pierre Breber said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday. “That will just move energy production to other countries. We know that we can develop energy in this country responsibly.”America is the world’s biggest consumer of crude and any restrictions of domestic production will mean more will have to be shipped in from other countries, which may produce higher-carbon oil and have less stringent environmental laws, the argument runs. U.S.-produced shale emits less carbon per barrel than the global average for both onshore and offshore, according to Rystad Energy.“Reducing domestic production will not only raise costs at the pump, but will also ensure international producers, operating with fewer environmental regulations, will meet the global demand for petroleum products,” Pioneer Natural Resources Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Scott Sheffield said by email. “That scenario is inconsistent with the administration’s choice to rejoin the Paris Accord.”The Oil-Climate Index, a 2016 model funded by the Carnegie Endowment, shows that shale plays including the Eagle Ford in South Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota have some of the lowest emissions per barrel globally.But key to shale’s climate impact is how operators manage natural gas that is produced alongside the crude and the industry has come under intense criticism for excessive flaring and venting of methane, an extremely harmful practice.For example, while the Bakken ranked ahead of Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar resource in the Oil-Climate Index, parts of the shale field where flaring is prevalent fell behind the Middle Eastern field. The Permian Basin has become notorious for burning off gas and the index is currently being updated by some of the original researchers to include estimates for the deposit. A Cornell University study published in 2019 said fracking was to blame for a decade-long global spike in methane levels.All the major shale players including Chevron and Pioneer say they support Biden’s plans to increase regulation of methane leaks, reversing former President Donald Trump’s policy. But anxiety is rising in the fossil fuel industry that it may be in for a sustained period of government pressure.Given that operators tend to stockpile leases for months or even years before they plan to drill, it’s unlikely that Biden’s action will have any short-term impact on shale production. In any case, operators are keen to show investors that they won’t grow production into an oversupplied market.It’s the Gulf of Mexico, where leases come up for sale infrequently and projects cost in the billions of dollars, where the largest impact of Biden’s policies may be felt, according to Chevron CEO Mike Wirth.“The risks are probably greater in the Gulf of Mexico,” he said on a call with analysts. “If conditions in the U.S. become so onerous that it really disincentivizes investment we’ve got other places we can take those dollars.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.?2021 Bloomberg L.P.
China may come under pressure to lift its ban on Australian coking coal and copper concentrates amid dwindling supplies of high quality raw materials, analysts said, although there are few signs that Chinese authorities are willing to relent just yet. Australia is known for its premium hard coking coal, a crucial raw material for steel making. Since October's unofficial ban on both coking and thermal coal, steel mills, which are especially reliant on Australia's hard coking coal variety, have resorted to using either more expensive coal of equal quality from countries like the United States, Russia, Canada and Mongolia, or lower quality coal from its own mines and other sources. Get the latest insights and analysis from our Global Impact newsletter on the big stories originating in China. Pressure has built on steel mills' profit margins, while concerns over the low quality of steel output have risen, as a result of using inferior coking coal. Some local mills and traders have petitioned their local governments over recent weeks for relief from the Australian coal ban, according to Fastmarkets, a pricing and research group. Some of the more than 50 Australian coal vessels stranded outside Chinese ports since the ban have been allowed to dock and unload recently. But there is still a bottleneck at Chinese customs. Australian exporters have to overcome more hurdles while customs officials consider whether they should let cargoes through, said Li Min, a Fastmarkets coal analyst. "Other steel mills and trading houses in China, which have cargoes of Australian coal waiting in anchorage, have requested to offload their cargoes through customs but have not got any firm replies yet," she said. An additional unofficial Chinese ban on imports of Australian-mined copper imposed in November may also start to backfire, especially with ongoing disruptions in the production and transport of copper from key producer Peru. Disgruntled local activist groups have blockaded Peruvian mines in recent weeks. In December, blockades in the Velille district of Peru's Chumbivilcas province disrupted copper concentrate flows from the Chinese-controlled Las Bambas copper mine, the world's ninth largest. "Everybody has been running their stocks [of concentrate] low for a year and the Las Bambas' delay has made it worse for Chinese smelters," Fastmarkets said, citing a trading source. Chinese imports of copper concentrate dropped by 1.9 per cent in 2020, the first yearly decline since 2011, despite rising domestic demand for copper concentrate used in copper smelting, the research firm said. China's Ministry of Commerce suggested last Thursday there would be no changes to the import bans, despite the pressure points in the supply chain. "The current difficult situation in China-Australia relations is not what China wants to see," said spokesman Gao Feng when asked if China was open to lifting the ban on Australian coal. "A healthy and stable China-Australia relationship is in the common interests of both countries. It is hoped that Australia will do more things that are conducive to mutual trust and cooperation between China and Australia, and push China-Australia relations back on track at an early date," he said. But China's hand could be forced in time, said Atilla Widnell, managing director at Navigate Commodities. "High quality coking coal supply is essential to support a stable and uniform reduction of the blast furnace iron burden," Widnell said. "Most Chinese coke ovens have limited tolerance for using Mongolian and other semi-soft coking coals. Without the use of high-grade premium hard coking coal, Chinese metallurgical coke batteries and output will deteriorate over time." Using low grade coking coal could lead to the production of brittle steel products, he added. Coking coal supply from neighbouring Mongolia has also been hit by border closures amid waves of coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, local Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns have shut down some construction in parts of China, slowed steel demand and steel mill operation, Widnell said, offering China some reprieve from the pressure to lift bans. China was, however, getting a reprieve from pressures to lift bans as new Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns have shut down construction, slowed down steel demand and lowered steel mill operations, Widnell said. In the interim, Australian coking coal prices have started to rise again amid soaring demand from non-Chinese steel mills, and tightening supplies due to heavy rains in the coal mining regions of Queensland, following a big drop in price when the ban took effect late last year. Australian hard coking coal fell to about US$98 a tonne in mid-November but has bounced back to about US$150 a tonne, pricing agencies said. With Australian authorities saying its China-bound exports have been diverted to other buyers, any punitive measures China intended might not have the desired effect. "China's punitive economic measures are causing self-inflicted wounds," Widnell said. This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright ? 2021 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright (c) 2021. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
A Valero Energy Corp joint venture will become the largest renewable diesel producer in the United States in 2023 when it opens a second facility at a site in Texas. The second-largest crude oil refiner in the United States on Thursday said it and partner Darling Ingredients Inc approved construction of a 470-million-gallon renewable diesel plant in Port Arthur, Texas. Once the $1.45 billion facility is complete, their Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) joint venture will be able to produce 1.2 billion gallons of renewable diesel per year from sites in Texas and Louisiana.
The minor trend is down, momentum is pointing lower and the market is trading on the weak side of the 50% level at $52.69.
Friday’s price action indicates the near-term direction of April gold will be determined by trader reaction to $1869.10 to $1846.00.
(Bloomberg) -- Oil edged lower on Friday alongside a broader market decline as the recovery in consumption remains uncertain.The dip capped a third straight week with New York futures stuck near $52 a barrel. U.S. equities weakened amid lingering concerns over volatile retail trading. While Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough allayed some worries about the deterioration of consumption, it’s clear the demand environment remains tepid. Chevron Corp. posted a fourth-quarter loss after weak fuel consumption hit its refining business.“There’s a lot of issues out there when it comes to demand going forward,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member of the global macro program at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC. “A massive amount of the population still is not going out anywhere. Demand will definitely see a big snapback, but who knows when that’s going to be?”But while headline prices have been treading water, the futures curve is pointing to a more balanced market as OPEC+ output curbs and restrained U.S. shale production help further draw down inventories accumulated during the pandemic.The nearest contracts for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate have moved further into a premium relative to the next month, a pattern known as backwardation that signals tighter supplies and strong demand.At the same time, low processing rates from refiners are keeping fuel supplies more or less in check. The incentive for processing a barrel of oil is growing, with the combined refining margin of gasoline and diesel back near levels last seen in May.Once vaccines are widely distributed, “we’re probably going to have the biggest surge in demand ever, at least year-over-year, and we’re not going to get the supply response we normally got” from U.S. shale producers, said Jay Hatfield, CEO at InfraCap in New York. “So price is going to have to be the moderating variable.”Still, the outlook for a consumption recovery remains shaky. The virus variant identified in South Africa has reached the U.S. just as Europe is set to tighten its rules on the export of vaccines.India’s demand for diesel, the country’s most-used fuel, is also struggling to shake off the pandemic’s crippling effects on its economy. The crawl back to pre-virus levels will be slow, with annual diesel consumption growth rates seen fully recovering in the year ended March 2022, a senior oil executive said.“There are concerns in the short-term around Chinese New Year and the threat of seeing case numbers go up there,” said Peter McNally, global head for industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge. But the demand impact “remains to be seen.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.?2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Oil futures on Friday finish the month sharply higher, finding support as traders hope efforts to rein in supply will offset pressure on demand from the continued spread of COVID-19 and slower-than-expected vaccine rollouts.
U.S. oil futures settled lower on Friday, weighed down by ongoing concerns over energy demand, but prices ended the month with a more than 7% gain, with Saudi Arabia set to implement a unilateral production cut of 1 million barrels a day starting in February. March West Texas Intermediate crude fell 14 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $52.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on the front-month contract close on Dec. 31, prices posted a climb of about 7.6% for the month of January, FactSet data show.
Crude oil markets have initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but gave back the gains to continue the overall sideways drift.
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